Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook 2024

1. Why did you choose this topic?

We have assessed the plausibility of reaching the Paris Climate Agreement in the past, concluding that it is not very plausible that the deep decarbonization which would be needed for this will be achieved fast enough. This emphasizes the urgency of sustainable climate change adaptation. However, adaptation to the impacts of climate change does not occur automatically. Therefore, our latest Outlook also assesses the plausibility of achieving adaptation to climate change in a sustainable manner.

We have previously assessed the plausibility of reaching the 1.5 temperature goal of the Paris Agreement, and concluded that it is not plausible, inasmuch as the scenario of reaching deep decarbonization fast enough (by 2050) is not plausible. This emphasizes the need and urgency of sustainable climate change adaptation. However, adaptation to the impacts of climate change does not occur automatically. In light of this, our latest Outlook also assesses the key context-conditions and the plausibility of achieving adaptation to climate change in different socio-ecological systems in a sustainable manner.

2. What new perspectives does your book offer?

We offer a realistic assessment of the social plausibility of both deep decarbonization and sustainable climate change adaptation, and an integration of physical and social assessments. Our assessment is firmly based in both the natural and the social sciences. We combine a model of social drivers of decarbonization with the analysis of physical dynamics and regional climate variability and extremes and place-based case-studies of sustainable climate change adaptation in urban, rural and coastal settings.

3. What makes your topic relevant for current research debates?

We link our analysis to many different current research debates such as the plausibility of climate change and social transformation, the importance of internal climate variability, to extreme compound climate events and to the discussion of potential tipping points. We offer thorough assessments based on our own empirical research in a large Cluster of Excellence and on comprehensive reviews of the latest available scientific evidence.

We connect our analysis to several current research debates, including the plausibility of climate change and social transformation, the importance of understanding internal climate variability, the impact of extreme compound climate events, and the discussion of potential tipping points. Our thorough assessments are based on our own empirical research within a large Cluster of Excellence, as well as comprehensive reviews of the latest available scientific evidence.

4. Your book summary in one sentence:

Achieving deep decarbonization and sustainable climate change adaptation requires a more inclusive and more connected repertoire of climate action.