Towards climate-neutral district heating in the EU

Achieving the target of a climate-neutral energy system in the European Union necessitates the transition to heating solutions in buildings eliminating the use of fossil fuels. District heating is potentially an important component in this transition.

This thesis explores the role of district heating systems in a climate-neutral energy system, addressing challenges such as reduced heat demand due to thermal renovations of buildings and the phasing out of fossil fuels in district heating generation. Detailed empirical data analysis, spatial analysis and scenario-based methods with high-resolution data sets were utilised to quantify the potential demand and supply of district heating in the future. The results indicate that the demand could increase significantly compared to current levels. Large supply potentials can be expected from geothermal and biomass resources as well as from heat pumps at wastewater treatment plants or surface water. Excess heat from industrial processes will play a minor role as its potential decreases due to industrial transformation to low-carbon processes. Overall, district heating systems could be expanded and decarbonized in the future.