HOPONOMICS: Market analysis applied to the hop industry 1980–2020

Hoponomics provides an unprecedented look into the hop industry between 1980 and 2020 and introduces the topic most taboo within the industry, how and why the market works the way it does. With a half century of combined experience across varying segments of the industry, the authors analyze the inner workings of the industry from an economic perspective. The book begins with a cursory overview and brief history of the hop industry for the unfamiliar reader. As it progresses, the reader is introduced to failed efforts by U.S. growers to regulate supply to alter price; the growth in production of the homogenous product, alpha acid, and the boom-and-bust cycle it perpetuated in the market as well as the industry’s intersection with other issues like anti-trust and collusion. Those already familiar with the industry can skip to more advanced topics. Recent developments such as the introduction of and dominance of intellectual property rights via proprietary varieties within a 20-year time frame are discussed and analyzed in depth. Correlations between different variables are quantified using the Pearson method. The ability to forecast U.S. season average prices is demonstrated. The Delayed Surplus Response (DSR) is introduced and quantified using the Bayesian inference method. The possible cartelization of the industry through the strict control over monopoly products is discussed and its long-term potential effects are briefly touched upon. The change in competitiveness within the industry between 2000 and 2020, since the introduction of proprietary varieties, is quantified using the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index and the authors explain how the U.S. Department of Justice may have easily overlooked a merger that enabled these events to occur. At the end, the reader will be well equipped to understand the potential for a causal relationship regarding the many changes in in the industry in the 21st century and estimate their effect on the hop industry and prices.